Performance Details

Department of Commerce, Community, and Economic Development - Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute

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Mission

Increase the economic value of Alaska seafood resources.

Core Services

• U.S. and International Retail and Foodservice Alaska Seafood Promotion, Public Relations, and Communications and Seafood Quality Technical Support

Mission Results

Core Services

A: Increased economic value of Alaska"s seafood resources. Details > TARGET #1: Increase the first wholesale value of selected Alaska salmon products by 0.5 percent. TARGET #2: Maintain first place ranking of Alaska Seafood among the most popular food brands on United States restaurant menus.

A1: U.S. and International Retail and Foodservice Alaska Seafood Promotion, Public Relations, and Communications and Seafood Quality Technical Support Details > TARGET #1: Increase the aggregate value of Alaska seafood exports to Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute (ASMI) program destination countries by 0.5 percent annually. TARGET #2: Increase the ex-vessel value of key species in Alaska"s commercial harvest by 0.5 percent annually. TARGET #3: Continue to generate target consumer awareness via consumer public relations and advertising campaigns.

Performance Detail

Target #1: Increase the first wholesale value of selected Alaska salmon products by 0.5 percent. Methodology: ADF&G, Commercial Operators Annual Report (Ex-Vessel Value) and Alaska Department of Revenue (First Wholesale Value), compiled by McKinley Research Group. *2023 values are preliminary as of October 2024. Analysis of results and challenges: Ex-vessel value refers to the value of payments made to fishermen by processors. First wholesale value is revenue received by processors when they sell processed seafood outside of their network. The Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute (ASMI) strives to increase the value of Alaska seafood products and increase the first wholesale value and ex-vessel value of all commercially harvested species of seafood for fishermen, processors, communities, and the State of Alaska. ASMI"s long-term goal is to increase the value of Alaska"s salmon resource with the understanding that there will be fluctuations from year to year. Higher pink salmon catches in odd numbered years tend to produce larger harvest volumes and values than in even numbered years. Results • Ex-vessel value from Alaska`s salmon fisheries totaled $538 million in 2023, a 35% decrease from the prior year. Despite stable harvest, the total ex-vessel value of Alaska`s salmon harvest was significantly impacted by low market prices in 2023. • Total first wholesale salmon value declined between 2022 and 2023. Preliminary data indicate first wholesale value of salmon totaled $1.655 billion in 2023, a 20.3% decrease from 2022. As with ex-vessel values, this decline was significantly impacted by low market prices which resulted from a combination of macroeconomic factors: the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies, changing seafood consumption in response to relatively high retail prices in 2022, and high salmon inventories due to the large 2022 harvest. • Averaging two years of salmon ex-vessel and first wholesale data smooths fluctuations due to the two-year life cycle of pink salmon and is standard practice in calculating the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of these indicators. While values have fluctuated over the past decade, ex-vessel values have increased slightly. The 2022/2023 average ex-vessel value of salmon harvests was $685.6 million, a 1% increase from the 2013/2014 average of $678.7 million. This represents a CAGR of 0.1%. • Wholesale values have trended up to a greater degree over the last decade. The 2022/2023 average first wholesale value of salmon production in Alaska was $1.866 billion, a 16% increase from the 2013/2014 average, a 2% CAGR over the ten-year period. • Preliminary data suggest wholesale sockeye salmon prices increased in 2024 compared to 2023 amid lower harvest volume and the sell down of high inventories in 2022 and 2023. Summary of market challenges and opportunities: Challenges: • Excess sockeye salmon inventory from the 2022 Bristol Bay season exerted downward pressure on prices for summer 2023 products. • The volume of salmon harvested in Alaska declined in 2024 across all five species commercially harvested in the state. Preliminary data suggests a total harvest of about 100 million salmon, 30% below the pre-season projected harvest of 135 million fish. • Long-term biological challenges for the wild salmon market include uncertainty caused by climate change, which may benefit some salmon runs, while hurting others. Recent trends towards smaller average salmon size are a concern because they decrease total biomass and the recovery rate per fish. • The continued growth of the farmed salmon industry is a long-term challenge to the wild Alaska salmon market. This is especially true of higher-quality farmed products that share some of wild salmon`s higher-end attributes. Opportunities: • Sustainable, wild-caught seafood is a limited resource that world consumers seek out for its health, taste, social and environmental qualities. Alaska salmon is positioned to increase in value in a market where buyers ask for healthy and environmentally friendly foods. • Russia`s war on Ukraine has decreased the volume of seafood exports from Russia, a key competitor of Alaska wild-caught seafood, to the United States, the European Union, and Japan. Sanctions placed on Russian businesses in 2022 and 2023 may provide additional opportunities for Alaska salmon exports. • President Biden`s Executive Order banning the importation of seafood harvested in Russian waters to the U.S. presents a significant opportunity for increased Alaska seafood consumption in the domestic market. Estimated Russian seafood imports to the U.S. in 2022 totaled over $452 million, primarily in cod, salmon and pollock. Target Last Modified: 11/15/2024

Target #2: Maintain first place ranking of Alaska Seafood among the most popular food brands on United States restaurant menus. Methodology: Dataessentials Research. Analysis of results and challenges: Alaska Seafood maintained strong brand recognition as the #1 top brand ranking on U.S. restaurant menus. According to Technomic in 2024, 74 percent of consumers reported being more likely to order seafood if the Alaska Seafood logo is on the menu, and seafood from Alaska is more appealing to consumers than any other origin. Target Last Modified: 11/15/2024

Target #1: Increase the aggregate value of Alaska seafood exports to Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute (ASMI) program destination countries by 0.5 percent annually. Methodology: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), compiled by ASMI staff, McKinley Research Group. *2023 values are preliminary as of October 2024. Analysis of results and challenges: Export markets are critical to Alaska"s seafood industry, accounting for 60% to 80% of first wholesale value each year. Growth in export volume and value helps maintain markets for Alaska seafood and supports higher values for the State"s annual production. Results: • In 2023, the total value of exports to ASMI program countries decreased by 8.0% despite total volume of exports to those countries increasing by 3.0% year-over-year. • Year-over-year export values were down for all except two ASMI regions, Eastern Europe (+62.4%) and South America (+11.6%). Exports to significant reprocessing regions such as China (-6.1%) and Northern Europe (-7.7%) declined in overall value between 2022 and 2023. China remains the largest single-nation importer of Alaska seafood by volume, while Japan continues to be the largest importer by value. • The export value of Alaska seafood can be volatile, and often fluctuates by more than five percent year-to-year. Over the past decade (2014-2023), the compound growth rate in export value was negative 2%, below the positive 0.5% annual goal. • Exports to non-ASMI program areas have remained relatively stable, with a 0.7% decrease by value year-over-year, a significantly lower decrease than the 8.0% reduction in value to ASMI program areas over the same period. • Total export volume to ASMI program countries increased 3% from 2022, largely due to relatively stable export volume to China, and an 10.9% increase to Japan, the second largest export destination of Alaska seafood, by volume. Summary of market challenges and opportunities: Challenges: • Many seafood species harvested in Alaska are also commercially harvested in Russia. The U.S. banned import of seafood products directly from Russia in 2022. However, Russian-origin seafood products are priced competitively on the international market. These lower prices impact the prices that Alaska seafood processors can charge in international markets, in turn negatively impacting ex-vessel prices paid to Alaska`s fishermen. • The relative strength of the U.S. dollar continues make Alaska seafood less price competitive in foreign markets such as Japan which have access to competitively priced Russian-origin products. • China remains the largest importer of Alaska seafood despite large decreases in export value and volume since 2017. Alaska seafood exports to China decreased by 39.6% between 2017 and 2023, a decline of 160,000 metric tons. China is an important center of reprocessing activity for Alaska-origin seafood. However, little Alaska seafood is sold into the growing domestic Chinese seafood market due to continued tariffs on U.S.-origin seafood. Opportunities: • The war in Ukraine has decreased the volume of seafood exports from Russia, a key competitor of Alaska wild-caught seafood, to the United States, the European Union, and Japan. Sanctions placed on Russian businesses in 2022 and 2023 may provide additional opportunities for Alaska seafood exports. • Emerging markets for Alaska seafood present opportunities to diversify the base of both potential consumer markets and re-processing markets. Emerging markets with increased Alaska seafood imports in 2023 included Mexico, Lithuania, Taiwan, and Chile. Target Last Modified: 11/15/2024

Target #2: Increase the ex-vessel value of key species in Alaska"s commercial harvest by 0.5 percent annually. Methodology: 2023 is preliminary as of October 2024. Data Sources: ADF&G (Commercial Operators Annual Report and CFEC), National Marine Fisheries Service, and McKinley Research Group estimates. Analysis of results and challenges: The harvest (ex-vessel) value of Alaska"s commercial seafood includes payments from processors to commercial fishermen and estimated value of product caught by catcher-processors. Increasing the harvest value of Alaska seafood benefits Alaska residents, in the form of economic activity and opportunity, along with state and local tax revenue. Results: • Preliminary data indicate that the ex-vessel value of Alaska seafood totaled $1.622 billion in 2023, a 20.2% decrease from 2022. • Ex-vessel value declined across nearly all species harvested in Alaska in 2023. Notable exceptions are Atka mackerel (+20.2%), crab (+10.6%), and herring (+6.3%). Species showing the greatest year-over-year decline are sablefish (-34.9%), salmon (-34.3%), and halibut (-32.3%). • Total ex-vessel value averaged $1.827 billion between 2022/2023, a 7.2% decrease from the 2013/2014 average. Over the past decade, the compound annual growth rate in total ex-vessel value was negative 0.7%, below the positive 0.5% annual goal. Summary of market challenges and opportunities: Challenge: • Russian-origin seafood products are priced competitively on the international market, impacting commodity prices for seafood species harvested in both Alaska and Russia. While the U.S. has enacted sanctions on seafood imported directly and indirectly from Russia, Russian seafood orders continued to be fulfilled through May 2024. • Reorganization occurred among Alaska`s shore-based seafood processors in 2023 and 2024 due to high production costs and declining product prices. This reorganization may further impact the ex-vessel price in the near term. • Tariffs remain a challenge to selling Alaska seafood abroad, especially in China, the largest direct export market for Alaska seafood. • The natural volatility in harvest volumes from wild fisheries will have impacts in the market. Reduced availability and/or increased price can reduce customer demand or the ability to purchase certain species or products. Additionally, maintaining market share and shelf space can be an issue in times of reduced harvests. Broader media coverage of closed fisheries or significantly reduced harvests can negatively impact consumer sentiment. Opportunities: . • Alaska seafood products have become more affordable to the end consumer as older high-priced inventories were sold down in 2024. Continued declines in retail prices may increase demand among domestic consumers. • An Executive Order effective in May 2024 banned the import of Russian-origin seafood products into the U.S. from other countries outside Russia. The full extent of these “indirect imports” has not been quantified. Estimates indicate about 70,000 metric tonnes of Russian-origin cod, salmon, and pollock valued at $452 million were imported into the U.S. from China, a major reprocessing center for Alaska and Russian seafood, in 2023. If effective, the ban on these indirect imports of Russian product could increase the domestic market for Alaska seafood. • Export data show a slight increase in the percentage of Alaska seafood sold to the domestic United States market in recent years. The domestic market has great potential for industry: selling Alaska-caught seafood domestically involves fewer logistical steps than selling abroad and is tariff free. The Alaska seafood brand is well aligned with U.S. consumer values as a wild, sustainable, and American-made product. • The Total Allowable Catch for Atlantic Cod was reduced by 14% in 2024. Lower harvest of this species may increase demand for Pacific Cod harvested commercially in Alaska. Target Last Modified: 11/15/2024

Target #3: Continue to generate target consumer awareness via consumer public relations and advertising campaigns. Methodology: Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute, Edelman PR, Carol Merry Mktg, Lotus UK, MK2, RiverGlobal, SMH Int., Crisp Consulting, D. McClellan. Analysis of results and challenges: The number of consumers reached through Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute (ASMI) consumer public relations (PR) efforts increased nearly 6.4% in FY2024 from the previous year. The FY2024 number shown in the above chart reflects consumers reached through consumer PR efforts in the United States as well as ASMI"s major international program areas, including China, South America and Europe. This is the fourth year ASMI has included international consumer PR impressions in this Performance Measure, as it provides a more accurate representation of the consumers reached through ASMI"s global consumer PR program activities. ASMI will continue to focus on increasing consumer awareness by using various methods of media communication including broadcast, print, social or online media public relations and through consumer promotions and campaigns in both retail and foodservice. Challenges and Opportunities: Traditional in-person consumer PR and marketing activities remain effective. However, rapidly evolving technology and social media preferences require continual shifts in marketing efforts, especially on digital and social media platforms. ASMI again connected with consumers virtually through expansive and targeted social media, earned and paid media relations activities, e-commerce campaigns as well as partnerships with social media influencers with millions of followers. These changing digital habits allow for new ways to educate and excite target consumers on the quality, sustainability, and health benefits of Alaska seafood, increasing the value of the Alaska seafood brand. Target Last Modified: 11/15/2024

Last refreshed: 05/22/2025 08:00 am